THEORY OF CHANGE METHODOLOGY AND ITS APPLICATION IN AGRICULTURAL POLICY

Abstract

The article explores the essence, conceptual foundations, and global practices regarding the application of the Theory of Change (ToC) methodology, which is considered one of the most effective tools in modern monitoring and evaluation systems. The relevance of the study is driven by the complex nature of development challenges in the agricultural sector and the inability of traditional linear management models to fully address this complexity. The study elucidates the conceptual differences between ToC and the logical framework (logframe), results framework, and other traditional logic models. It emphasizes that ToC is not merely a sequence of activities, but a strategic mindset that clarifies causal links, fundamental assumptions, and risks regarding how and why change occurs. Within the framework of the research, ToC is characterized as a mindset, a continuous analytical process, and a “live” strategic product. The article analyzes the specific purposes for which key  international organizations operating in the agricultural sector - the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), and the International Fund for  Agricultural Development (IFAD) - utilize this method. It was determined that these institutions effectively use ToC as a tool for knowledge transfer, justification of investment logic, and crisis management. The main conclusion of the study is that ToC transforms agricultural policy from a static process into an evidence-based, inclusive, and adaptive management mechanism. The application of this method within local administrative structures, particularly in the activities of organisations involved in agriculture and food security, can directly contribute to the systematic analysis of root causes hindering progress and the more efficient allocation of resources.